EV
In this analysis, I have not separated solar panels and ev's. The fact is, separate analysis should be done. One analysis, for the rate of return of panels alone, and another analysis for EV's versus ICE based transportation. And, when I get to that, I will base the EV costs on the Nissan Leaf.
Cost of batteries? It is a consumable. I estimate that with a daily commute of 30 miles, that the number of charge cycles is 650 or 1.78 years. Battery replacement is $2026 for 1.78 years . OR, $1138 / year @ 30 miles per day.
Gasoline energy costs: Assume 30 miles per day, 23 miles per gallon, and $2.50 per gallon. $3.26 / day. The cost per year is $1190. This does not include ICE maintenance costs.
ICE Maintenance costs. Clearly, a new car has very low maintenance sosts. A 10 year old ICE may have comparable maintenance costs to EV battery replacement costs. The chart below shows the investment rate of return, and the break even time, as a function of assumed ICE maintenance costs - from $0 to $1138.
WOW- Great Investment Return-I am going to talk to a banker.
Here is an evaluation of lithium cells.
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ICE Maintenance costs: The following was taken from this website.
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A battery pack replacement in a pure electric car is more than compensated by savings that result from the following:
- Low electricity rates (especially in the Pacific Northwest) combined with high energy efficiency rates for electric cars, resulting in lower recharging costs than gasoline engine refueling costs.
- Powered by local energy instead of petroleum oil from foreign countries.
- Zero tail pipe emissions (completely zero emissions if the electricity comes from hydro, solar, or wind power, such from Portland General Electric's renewable electricity options).
- Can be refueled at home overnight while we sleep (while taking advantage of lower ninght-time electric utility rates).
- No pumping of gasoline/diesel and no waiting in line at gasoline stations.
- No engine fuel sensors, air sensors, and other engine sensors needing replacement/repair .
- No internal combustion engine tune ups.
- No oil changes (such as at Jiffy lube) and flushes; no oil filter replacements.
- No radiator fills and flushes.
- No fuel pump replacement (the alcohol additive in our gasoline causes gas tank crud to clog my fuel filters and since my fuel pump is in the gas tank, it also eats at my fuel pump).
- No engine head gasket replacement (requires removing the top of the engine and thus high labor expense).
- No transmission flush and potential repairs (many cars with clutches need clutch repairs).
- No brake repair (cars lacking regenerative braking wear the brake pads quicker).
- No gasoline/diesel engine stalling.
- No smell of exhaust.
- No DEQ emission testing.
- No timing and serpentine belt replacements.
- etc.
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What of the various trends of the numbers that are used in the EV versus ICE comparison?
Cost of gasoline @ $2.50 per gallon---> ???? I suspect that it will increase.
Cost of Electricity from the light company. It probably will increase. By generating power thru PV, I will not see changes in $ / kWatt-hr.
Cost of PV electricity ---> No change over 25 years. In fact, the performane does not abruptly change after 25 years. It may decrease @ 0.5% per year.
Cost of batteries. If production of SLA batteries increased 10 fold, I suspect the price would decrease, and maybe the life will improve. Lithium batteries have 2-3 X life.
The cost of PV panels will improve, either thru technological advances, or thru rebates.
QED!